Caldwell Partners LLC

2026 Midyear Report | Secondary Liquidity Trends | Caldwell Partners
Caldwell Partners
Market Commentary · Midyear 2026
2026 Midyear Report

Secondary Liquidity Trends

A strategic framework for general partners, limited partners and pre-IPO private companies navigating longer hold periods, constrained distributions and fundraising pressure.

August 07, 2026 Download PDF Copy
Core market signal
55%Estimated GP-led share of total secondary market volume in the first half of 2026.
Executive summary

Liquidity is becoming an operating discipline

Secondary market liquidity has moved from an occasional tactical fix to a core design principle in private markets.

Longer hold periods, constrained distributions and fundraising pressure persisted in the first half of 2026. The strongest exit strategies were not simply those that created one-off liquidity, but those that institutionalized repeatable processes, pricing discipline and governance.

For GPs, continuation vehicles and NAV-based loan solutions functioned as recurring liquidity strategies when paired with independent valuation, disciplined asset selection and strong alignment. For LPs, portfolio sales, scheduled rebalancing and structured underwriting frameworks turned liquidity into a managed portfolio variable. For pre-IPO companies, recurring tender offers and controlled secondary programs were most effective when conducted on a predictable cadence with clear eligibility rules, cap-table governance and tax preparation.

55%Estimated GP-led share of overall secondary volume in H1 2026
28%Estimated CAGR in GP-led deal volume since 2020
11%Average GP commitment to a continuation vehicle in H1 2026
85%Deals in which GPs rolled 90% or more of realized carry proceeds
Market context

A slower-exit world rewards preparation

Private market liquidity conditions in the first half of 2026 were characterized by extended exit timelines, capital overhang and constrained net cash flows. These conditions pushed market participants to treat secondaries, continuation vehicles and evergreen structures as durable mechanisms for managing liquidity across cycles.

IPO markets contributed minimally to private-equity-backed exits, increasing the importance of GP-led processes and secondary sales. Recurring liquidity is easiest to sustain when it is embedded in lifecycle planning: participants that pre-plan channels, governance and communications are better positioned to avoid value-destructive transactions during periods of market stress.

Selected midyear indicators
GP-led share of market
55%
Deals with ≥90% carry rollover
85%
Average GP commitment
11%
Percentages are Caldwell Partners estimates for the first half of 2026. Metrics represent different bases and are shown together only as a visual summary.
1 · Strategies for GPs

Use the right tool for the right liquidity objective

Continuation funds
01

Extend premium assets with purpose

Reserve continuation vehicles for assets with a clear reason to hold longer: unfinished buy-and-build plans, strong earnings momentum or a strategic inflection not yet reflected in public or M&A markets.

Alignment
02

Build trust into the process

Meaningful GP commitments, carry reinvestment, independent valuations and adequate LP review periods help reduce conflict concerns and strengthen credibility with buyers and rolling LPs.

Segmentation
03

Match structure to purpose

Use continuation vehicles for premium assets, LP-led solutions for fund-level optionality and NAV facilities only where short-duration financing supports value creation rather than masking exit delays.

Governance test

Deals driven mainly by the need to manufacture DPI or support fundraising are more vulnerable to governance criticism and buyer skepticism. The transaction rationale should be rooted in incremental value creation.

2 · Best practices for LPs

Treat liquidity as portfolio construction

The strongest LP strategy was to make liquidity planning an ongoing portfolio process rather than a reactive sale decision. Secondary transactions can rebalance portfolios, manage cash-flow needs and provide liquidity without forcing premature underlying asset sales.

01

Maintain sell / hold / roll reports

Test each option against concentration, vintage exposure, denominator effects and conviction in the underlying asset.

02

Act before a liquidity crisis

Use secondary sales proactively for rebalancing. These transactions have become increasingly common and largely destigmatized.

03

Underwrite sponsor governance

Assess valuation quality, process fairness and the sponsor's credible path to incremental value creation—not only the underlying company.

Codify expectations before they are needed

  • Independent fairness and valuation support
  • Transparent election mechanics
  • Adequate diligence and review time
  • Clear disclosure of fees, conflicts and follow-on capital requirements
3 · Strategies for pre-IPO companies

Predictable tender windows create control

Recurring, company-controlled tender offers or secondary windows were more effective than waiting for employee pressure or IPO timing to dictate liquidity. A structured program can relieve pressure on employees and early investors while preserving company control over pricing, participant eligibility and cap-table outcomes.

Define the rules

Establish who may sell, how much may be sold, who may buy and what transfer restrictions or approvals apply.

Prepare participants

Provide tax scenario planning, robust shareholder communications and post-sale diversification guidance.

Set a cadence

Annual or semiannual windows can support retention and legacy-holder liquidity without opening continuous uncontrolled trading.

Signal value

A predictable cadence sends a stronger signal than sporadic, crisis-driven tenders and better prepares the company for eventual IPO readiness or strategic alternatives.

Best practices for the second half of 2026

A rules-based liquidity operating system

The most durable model is built around cadence, transparency and stakeholder alignment. Liquidity should not be treated as a standalone transaction; organizations should define when it will be offered, how pricing will be validated, and which approvals and disclosures are mandatory.

StakeholderBest recurring strategyWhy it works in 2026Critical safeguards
GPsContinuation vehicles and selective GP-led secondaries for top assetsExtends hold periods while generating optional liquidity in a slow-exit marketIndependent valuation, carry rollover, meaningful GP commitment and a robust LP election process
LPsProgrammatic secondary rebalancing and disciplined roll/sell underwritingImproves cash-flow management and portfolio construction flexibilityPre-set portfolio rules, governance standards, concentration and vintage analysis
Pre-IPO companiesPredictable tender offers and controlled secondary windowsRelieves employee and early-investor pressure without ceding control of the cap tableEligibility rules, tax planning, disclosure discipline and board oversight
Conclusion

Repeatability over episodic liquidity

The highest-conviction approach is to manage liquidity as a planned, repeatable program—not as an episodic process.

Liquidity programs create the most value when stakeholders know they will recur, understand the rules and trust that pricing and governance are fair enough to preserve long-term relationships while delivering near-term optionality.

— The Portfolio Analytics Team at Caldwell Partners

About Caldwell Partners

Secondary liquidity as a strategy

Caldwell Partners, LLC is a consulting partner to GPs, LPs and pre-IPO companies seeking to design and execute ongoing secondary market liquidity strategies before engaging external counterparties. The firm integrates market and portfolio data, scenario modeling and tailored processes to help sponsors and allocators continuously evaluate and act on their most attractive liquidity alternatives.

For further information
Amelia Jones, Relationship Manager
William Roberts, Managing Director
Disclaimer. The information contained in this market commentary is for informational and discussion purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax or accounting advice, nor an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or financial instruments. This report reflects views and opinions as of the date of publication and is based on information estimated by Caldwell Partners, LLC or obtained from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to accuracy, completeness or timeliness. Market conditions may change rapidly and Caldwell Partners undertakes no obligation to update this material. References to specific structures or opportunities are illustrative and may not be suitable for all clients. Past performance and historical trends are not indicative of future results. Recipients should conduct independent analysis and seek advice from their own professional advisers. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions; actual outcomes may differ materially. By accessing this report, you acknowledge that Caldwell Partners, LLC shall not be held liable for direct or indirect losses arising from use of or reliance on the information herein.
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